Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 19.155161 20.734639 22.432882 24.403076 26.636598 29.102745 32.049319
2025-09-07 16.451844 18.591338 21.044906 24.099637 27.848020 32.361637 38.309603
2025-09-14 14.646004 17.100036 20.058238 23.956550 29.069056 35.714360 45.310527
2025-09-21 13.249935 15.866732 19.147458 23.674991 29.954677 38.683809 52.403252
2025-09-28 12.596518 15.448958 19.161931 24.523787 32.395858 44.143096 64.433460
2025-10-05 11.718544 14.627811 18.522411 24.345089 33.285213 47.422585 73.906360
2025-10-12 11.018691 13.967827 18.014671 24.256827 34.245114 50.936784 84.845649
2025-10-19 10.532948 13.551034 17.792874 24.540378 35.797034 55.723134 99.959184
2025-10-26 9.987652 13.001602 17.319769 24.363277 36.529142 59.156151 113.571192
2025-11-02 9.491438 12.483620 16.843787 24.117164 37.083923 62.342264 128.032963
2025-11-09 9.110122 12.105028 16.543429 24.117013 38.065610 66.597209 147.521881
2025-11-16 8.718616 11.684687 16.143542 23.901113 38.599404 70.007028 166.635271
2025-11-23 8.355240 11.292727 15.771440 23.716416 39.210253 73.861325 190.393758
2025-11-30 8.019040 10.923845 15.411604 23.520143 39.776983 77.803124 218.051131
2025-12-07 7.730653 10.612501 15.123133 23.423474 40.537897 82.479303 253.647873
2025-12-14 7.435748 10.274872 14.768381 23.168901 40.920668 86.283499 290.106172
2025-12-21 7.359834 10.277680 14.979525 23.999392 43.855243 98.376664 391.222836
2025-12-28 7.115918 9.997728 14.690235 23.829834 44.447704 103.635149 462.126387
2026-01-04 6.903525 9.758325 14.455654 23.745854 45.234982 109.870488 558.188331
2026-01-11 6.762289 9.627948 14.402400 24.021402 46.965112 120.165417 732.571396
2026-01-18 6.561927 9.390326 14.144523 23.850039 47.521166 126.435534 896.467875
2026-01-25 6.364206 9.148688 13.866117 23.611576 47.866273 132.104966 1093.157812
2026-02-01 6.212341 8.977619 13.705931 23.611488 48.867512 141.090532 1441.542732